The cars of the early 21st century probably won't fly, nor will they be fitted with flux capacitors, cold fusion energy processors or many of the other fantastic gad- gets depicted in science fiction movies and literature. They will, however, be safer, more efficient and better by far than today's state-of-the-art machines.

In a decade or two every car and truck on the road will come equipped with longitudinal controls, lateral controls, collision avoidance devices and computerized navigational systems.

These complex technologies will work hand in glove with an automated highway, which will literally do the driving for us. When we surrender the wheel to this computerized infrastructure we will leave behind one of the fundamental miseries of modern life - highway gridlock. No longer will we dread the approach of "rush hour." Instead we will read the newspaper, drink coffee or catch a movie as our super vehicles take us smoothly and efficiently to the office and home again.

Recent developments in transportation technology are taking us ever closer to this brave new world. According to experts like Neil De Koker, managing director of the Original Equipment Suppliers Association in Troy, Mich., electronics are taking over many automotive operational functions that were previously done mechanically.

"Back in the '50s, most cars had six-volt batteries," he says. "As time passed the voltage was increased to accommodate things like power windows and seats. Today's autos are loaded with all kinds of electrical stuff, which has made it necessary to jump the voltage from 14 to 14/42 dual voltage. Increasing the electrical power has made possible a host of new technologies such as steer by wire and brake by wire. Advancing electronic technology will ultimately have a powerful effect on fuel economy. Engines will be equipped with electronically controlled fuel and air systems that will be very precise and will save on gas by 15 to 20 percent."

Increasing fuel savings decreases fuel dependence, which in turn has a curative effect on the environment. Fuel independence will come about as more a matter of necessity than choice. As the world learns to operate more efficiently, its citizens will likely become more prosperous, accelerating the demand for cheap, nonpolluting personal transportation. As a result the automotive industry will be forced to search seriously for alternatives to fossil fuels. According to De Koker, the first years of the 21st century will see the rise of fuel cells, which will be hydrogen rather than gasoline-based. Electrically powered vehicles will also become commonplace. Even now the industry is experimenting with hybrids that employ both gas and electricity. The gas charges the battery. The battery powers the vehicle.

"Today's autos are 98 percent less polluting than the gas hogs of the '50s and '60s," De Koker says. "This trend will pick up momentum in the near future, driven by the global demand for automobiles, the toxic effects of fuel emissions on the environment, and the diminishing supply of oil worldwide. All of this is making cars and trucks a lot more sophisticated. Seat-of-the-pants repairs won't work anymore. Instead the corner garage will have to make a serious investment in state-of-the-art equipment, and training to stay in business. An auto technician will have to become a top-of-the-line specialist in his field. Unless he keeps up with the changing times, he may be out of a job."

An Industry in Transition
American automotive consumers are more discriminating now than in decades past. No longer are they willing to shell out big bucks for cars and trucks that become geriatric before their time. The industry has responded to this new breed of customer by upgrading their wares inside and out. Steels are coated and less prone to erosion problems. Interior components are smaller, finer and more complex. The burgeoning use of electronics has improved vehicle efficiency and reduced the number of moving parts. This has resulted in fewer service requirements and an increasing emphasis on electrical rather than mechanical parts when repairs are made.

"Historically, services such as oil changes and tuneups were scheduled," says David Cole, Ph.D., director of the Office of the Study of Automotive Transportation at the University of Michigan. "Now we're moving in the direction of "service as needed." In the future, a car will tell its owner when service is required based on what it infers electronically from the engine and the other systems operating within the vehicle. The motorist will be prompted based on actual need instead of having to remember a calendar date to keep his transportation investment in top running order."

The industry is also changing the way it communicates information to dealers, technicians and consumers, Cole continues. Over the course of just a few years the Internet has evolved from a part-time amusement for bored teenagers and computer geeks to the "National Information Utility." This is promoting a paperless society, especially in the world of business. Already, big auto producers like General Motors have stopped producing paper manuals in favor of the electronic equivalent available on the Web or CD. While paper manuals and bulletins are unlikely to disappear in the immediate future, they are already becoming prohibitively expensive. When the books finally do go the way of the dinosaurs, technicians will rely almost exclusively on the World Wide Web for technical information. Computer literacy will no longer be a luxury then. It will be an absolute necessity.

"The auto industry of the near future will no longer be clean and predictable," Cole says. "Right now you still have a tremendous amount of competition taking place between all aspects of the business. That's changing fast. One mega-trend to watch will be the merging of the aftermarket and the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The boundary between these two areas of the industry is already dissolving, and once it is gone the result will be more competition in the marketplace, more complexity and more uncertainty. Everything that applies to the manufacturing side applies equally to the service side. An auto tech will need a better education, and a clear understanding of computers to keep going. If he doesn't possess this knowledge and sophistication now, he will need to go after it in a hurry. The days of Goober Pyle are already years behind us."

Surviving Changing Times
Scanners, meters and oscilloscopes bridge the gap between the auto tech and the nerve center of the vehicle on which he or she is operating. According to Andy O'Neal, associate dean of the Technical Division of Northwestern College in Lima, Ohio, each manufacturer recommends test equipment compatible with its line of product. To play by the book, one would have to purchase a different scope for each brand of auto in the marketplace, a very costly proposition indeed. Fortunately, there are generic products available though companies like OTC, Snap-on and Fluke that are just as effective as the lines promoted by the manufacturers. The trick, says O'Neal, is not in finding the right scope, but in knowing how to use it.

"One of the trends right now is testing with a PC," he says. "Using the right set of adapters, a tech can hook a car up to his computer and find out what's wrong with the ABS, the electronic controls on the transmission, or whatever. Many techs don't like to use PCs and test equipment because they don't understand how they work. They think a scanner contains the information they're looking for but the truth is the car does. The vehicle's computer system is feeding the data to the scanner, and it's the tech's job to translate the information. Right now a tech needs a basic understanding of computers and testing equipment to service the vehicles that roll in and out of his shop every day. In the future he will have to be fluent in this stuff just to survive."

D. Douglas Graham is a freelance writer based in Columbia, Mo.

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