Election Year Impact On The Aftermarket by Bob Redding Although the television draws of both the Republican and Democratic conventions have remained below 15 percent of television households, the American citizens have been barraged with media reports of local, state and federal races.
Politics at the state and local levels have gained an increasing amount of significance because of the heightened decentralization of federal power. More decisions are being made at the local and state levels. No issue has witnessed this struggle more than emissions inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.
Without question, the election of 1994 produced a sea of change in the way Congress viewed the small business community. But the aftermarket would be naive to accept a total partisan view of what serves it best. Issues vary greatly in this industry and specific political strategies are key in maintaining a thriving aftermarket that few political leaders understand.
What could the 1996 elections produce? In the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats need a net gain of 20 seats to win back control; remember that Republicans picked up 53 House seats in the 1994 elections. What is the likelihood of a House Democratic take over? Not likely. A quick review of the top 20 most vulnerable House seats reveals that 14 are currently represented by Democrats. Head to head, 25 Democrats represent districts that should vote Republican in 1996.
Another 25 GOP-occupied seats should trend Democratic.
If the House does flip, the automotive industries' key committee assignments -- especially the House Commerce Committee's leadership -- would look very different. Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) would again chair the House Commerce Committee. Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) would chair the Health and Environment Subcommittee. Rep. Elizabeth Furse (D-Ore.) would chair the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee.
There is no state's congressional delegation more dominant in the automotive arena than Pennsylvania. Rep. Bud Shuster (R-Penn.) chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Rep. Bill Goodling (R-Penn.) chairs the House Economic and Educational Opportunities Committee. Rep. Bill Clinger (R-Penn.) heads the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee. The House Science Committee is chaired by Rep. Bob Walker (R-Penn.) and for collision repairers, Rep. George Gekas (R-Penn.) chairs the Commercial and Administration Law Subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee. In the Senate, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Penn.) serves on the Transportation Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee. In a Democratic Congress, all of those positions would change.
Many observers feel that the House parties will move closer together in number, but not change majorities. If this is the case, liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats (Blue Dogs) will have considerable clout as swing votes.
The Republicans should hold the Senate, but the current margin of 53-47 might diminish by a seat or two. (Note that all ties in the Senate are decided by the vice president.)
Changes would occur if the Senate goes Democratic, but with much less drama than the House. Probably the greatest degree of change would occur in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee where Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) would become chairman and Sen. Lauch Faircloth (R-N.C.) would lose his Clean Air Subcommittee chairmanship to Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.).
Those following antitrust activities would see a revival of interest in reviewing insurance issues if the House or Senate majority changed. There has been little interest in reforming McCarren-Ferguson since the 1994 elections.
If the majority changes in the House, the greatest policy variance might occur in the Worker Protection Subcommittee of the House Economic and Educational Opportunities Committee. Rep. Cass Ballenger (R-N.C.) currently chairs the subcommittee, but would wave to hand it over to Rep. Major Owens (D-N.Y.). Ballenger has led the small business fight to reform the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).
Of course, changes would occur if the administration changes. Certainly more state involvement in detaining environmental regulations and laws. This alone would be a major significance to both mechanical and collision repairers.
Independent repairs have a lot at stake in the 1996 election cycle. At a minimum ... vote! Hopefully, you will let the candidates know what you do for a living and how their work impacts your business.
Bob Redding is ASA's Washington representative. He holds a law degree from the George Washington University School of Law.
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Regulatory Compliance -- Turn A Pain Into A Gain
Low-budget Marketing Ideas For Big-dollar Results || How To Handle Low VOC Paints
Mechanical Shops Are Going Green || Election Year Impact On The Aftermarket
Guest Editorial -- Control At Point-of-sale Is Not About Leveling The Playing Field
Tech To Tech || TechTips || Stat Corner || News Briefs || News Briefs Extra || Taking The Hill || Directions || Around ASA || Chairman's Message
AutoInc. Magazine ®, Vol. XLIV No. 10, October 1996